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Sure Bets

There is no such thing in the world you may say but there is. A sure bet or a risk free bet is a bet, where you will win no matter the outcome. How does this happen? A sure bet appears when bookmakers have different estimations about the outcome of an event.sure bets

Team A vs. Team B
Team A @2.30 – Draw @3.70 – Team B @4.20

Suppose I want to bet on all three results (each of them with a different amount since the odds are different) in order that each bet would give me the same profit:

  • First I will bet on a win for Team A, I will invest $1,000 and could win $2,300 in case Newcastle wins (2.30*1,000).
  • My second bet will be on a Draw and in order to also make it possible to win $2,300 I will bet on only $622 (2300/3.70).
  • My third bet will be for a win for Team B, which means I will bet on no more than $548 so that I could win the same amount, $2,300 (2300/4.20).

Obviously each bet is done in a different website.
Now I can be sure that no matter what the result is I will win $2,300 (one result wins and the others lose). Let’s see how much I invested: $2,170 = 1000+622+548 . This is sure bets!

You won`t find a sure bet within a single bookie since they operate on a following principle:

Payout =

1
------------------------------------------------------- = < 1 (100%)
1 / home odds + 1 / draw odds + 1 / away odds

The payout percentage differs among the bookies but is in general between 80% and 95%. But if you search for best odds for an individual outcome among several bookmakers then we might find a sure bet or a payout > 1 (100%).

Example: England to win vs. Germany

Home odds: @2,50

Draw odds: @3,50

Away odds: @3,40

Payout =

1
---------------------------------- = 1,0206 > 1
1 / 2,50 + 1 / 3,50 + 1 /3,40

As you can see from the formula you will have a guaranteed profit of 2,06% no matter the outcome of an event if you would have covered each outcome. This means that for every 100 EUR staked you would got back 102,60 EUR - regardless the outcome. You need to calculate the stake ratio:

40,82 EUR on the home win(102,06 EUR / @2,50)

29,16 EUR on the draw (102,06 EUR / @3,50)

30,02 EUR on the away win(102,06 EUR / @3,40)

It is evident that you would be in profit no matter how the game ends. You have staked (40,82 + 29,16 + 30,02 = 100 EUR) and the payout was 102,60 EUR thus securing a profit of 2,06%. Your guaranteed profit with sure bets is usually between 0,1% and 15% and rarely even higher.

Sounds great? It is but before you resign your job :) you should consider following: you must have several accounts with many bookmakers to take advantage over best odds. Not every bookmaker is reliable and some operate with low betting limits. Because guaranteed profit is small you must deposit and bet higher amounts and this can result in various expenses that may take away your edge.

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